Cook Political Report Moves Mississippi Senate Race Toward Colom: “The Potential Sleeper Race of the Cycle”

Second nonpartisan forecaster in less than a week moves the race toward Colom, calling the shift “further evidence that Democrats have expanded the map into red territory even in the Deep South”

“Hyde-Smith has never been a particularly strong candidate,” while Colom “has run a strong campaign”

District Attorney Colom: “This is more evidence that we clearly have the momentum to win on November 3 and prove t

Jackson, MS – In case you missed it, the Cook Political Report, one of the race handicappers Washington watches most closely, today put Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race “on the board,” moving it from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” That makes two major forecasters in six days, after Sabato’s Crystal Ball made the same move last Wednesday. Cook’s Jessica Taylor lays out why: Hyde-Smith has a history of running behind, Republicans worry she will “again underperform the partisan baseline,” and District Attorney Scott Colom has run a strong campaign. And her advice to pick another protein when beef prices are soaring, Taylor writes, is “hardly a welcome message in the carnivorous deep South.”

Cook’s move caps a big stretch for the Colom campaign. The New York Times’ E.J. Dionne wrote that this “really could be the year for a Mississippi miracle.” Colom outraised Hyde-Smith more than two to one in the third quarter. The Daily Beast reported that Hyde-Smith has taken donations from the power company at the center of Mississippi’s data center expansion, and that an AI-linked group spent nearly half a million dollars to support her reelection. That comes as Mississippi voters oppose more data centers nearly two to one. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is campaigning with Colom in DeSoto County today. Vice President Kamala Harris joins him in Columbus on Thursday, and Secretary Pete Buttigieg will be on the Gulf Coast on October 27.

“Mississippi is in play because thousands of Mississippians volunteered and chipped in to make this race competitive,” said District Attorney Colom. “This is more evidence that we clearly have the momentum to win on November 3 and prove to the nation that Mississippi matters. And Cindy knows she’s about to lose, which is why she’s hiding from voters and blanketing the airwaves with lies about me. Folks are tired of paying more for everything while Cindy Hyde-Smith looks out for her donors, plain and simple.” 

Read more below:

Cook Political Report: Candidate Quality Shifts the Senate Map: South Carolina and Mississippi Toward Democrats, Minnesota Toward GOP
By Jessica Taylor │October 20, 2026

The shifts in Democrats’ direction […] are further evidence that Democrats have expanded the map into red territory even in the Deep South.

But Republican strategists we’ve talked to continue to be morose over the state of the political environment — and thus the expanding political map — that has forced them to play defense in states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits.

Ultimately, with two weeks to go until Election Day, the battle for control of the Senate still hangs in the balance, but Democrats have the wind at their back.

Mississippi has been the potential sleeper race of the cycle — intriguing some national Democrats,including Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Trump carried the state by 23 points, but his standing has eroded enough even in the Magnolia State to warrant a new investment of $1.2 million from SenateMajority PAC in the hopes that Democrat Scott Colom could upset Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

Hyde-Smith has never been a particularly strong candidate; she underperformed in her 2018 special election and was forced into a runoff, eventually beating Democrat Mike Espy 54%—46%. 

In a rematch in 2020, she ran behind Trump by 3.5 points.

[S]ome Republicans worry she will again underperform the partisan baseline. Colom is also optimistic that the 37% of the eligible electorate that is African American will be particularly energized to vote against the GOP incumbent — and for a Black Democrat — in the wake of the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act.

Colom, the Lowndes County district attorney, has run a strong campaign, outraising Hyde-Smith in the third quarter $1.3 million to $643,000.

Colom’s campaign is also hoping to make hay over an interview in which Hyde-Smith dismissed high beef prices by suggesting that Americans choose another protein — hardly a welcome message in the carnivorous deep South.

Nonetheless, this race merits being on the board, so it moves from Solid to Likely Republican.

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